And the Oscar Goes to...(2009 Edition)

I doubt I'll be watching the Oscars this year--I'm having at Mom's house that night, and she hates watching the long, often tedious telecast.

That won't stop me from making my annual predictions, though.

Best Supporting Actress. One of the hardest categories to call in years. I could seriously see any one of the nominees--Amy Adams (Doubt), Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) or Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)--taking this one home. Academy voters may have a hard time deciding and, to cut down on unnecessary thought, may just choose the biggest name in the bunch. If that's the case, expect Cruz to get the little gold statuette (manufactured right here in Chicago)--she's my official choice. If not...it's anybody's guess.

Best Supporting Actor. As hard as it is to call the Best Supporting Actress category, that's how easy it is to call this category. Josh Brolin? Robert Downey Jr.? Philip Seymour Hoffman? Michael Shannon? Sorry, fellas. The nomination will have to be the award for you. Heath Ledger's turn as the Joker in The Dark Knight likely would have won him this award anyway, but his death last year due to an accidental drug overdose makes it a virtual certainty.

Best Actress. It's great to see veteran character actress Melissa Leo nominated this year, especially since her movie, Frozen River, came out a while ago--too bad she has virtually no chance of winning. It's also nice to see Anne Hathaway get a nod--she started her career in fluffy rom-com roles, but has rapidly advanced to much more serious fare. Unfortunately, she's got no more of a shot than Leo, but she's more likely to be nominated again in the near future. Angelina Jolie and Meryl Streep? They've both won Oscars before. That leaves Kate Winslet. This is her fifth nomination for Best Actress. It'll likely be her first win.

Best Actor. This, for me, is the most interesting category. Brad Pitt has no chance, especially since plenty of people seem to feel that the makeup and special effects in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button gave the performance for him. As with Melissa Leo, it's nice to see character actor Richard Jenkins get nominated for The Visitor--and as with Leo, Jenkins has no chance of winning. Both Mickey Roarke (The Wrestler) and Sean Penn (Milk) have a lot of support. It could be hard for Academy voters to choose between them. There was a similar situation in the Best Actress category last year, when both Julie Christie and Ellen Page had lots of support for their noms, leading to a split that allowed Marion Cotillard to win. I think there may be a similar result in this category this year, allowing Frank Langella to win for Frost/Nixon. This would be a major upset. Then again, Cotillard's win last year was a major upset, so it's possible--and it's what I'm predicting.

Best Picture. This category is almost as easy to choose as Best Supporting Actor. The winner will, of course, be The Dark Knight, with Christopher Nolan taking the award for Best Dir...wait...what? Neither Dark Knight nor Nolan got nominated? The hell? Sometimes you confuse me, Academy voters. Oh well...of the movies that actually did get nominated, Benjamin Button, The Reader and Frost/Nixon are all out of the running. Milk may take the top prize, but it's much more likely that this year's "little film that could," Slumdog Millionaire, will win instead, with Danny Boyle getting the corresponding Oscar for Best Director.

I've gotten pretty good at this particular guessing game, but since I'll probably only catch the ass end of the broadcast after dinner at Mom's, I'm morelikely to find how good I am this year Monday morning.